Learn the methodologies built into Jirav for bottoms up revenue modeling
This article will walk through an example of building a revenue forecast using drivers that create bookings for Customers
For this example we will have the following products:
- Home Security Camera
- Monthly subscription
- Annual Subscription
And the two Customers: Amazon and Direct
Use the Import products template for Jirav to bring in your Company's products.
Create two Customer Segments for Amazon and Direct
You can then select the name and rename the Customer:
And you can add a description of the customer as well:
Next we need to fill in the Customer Product Mix table
As you can see in the screen shot above, the rows on the table are of the products from our products table with columns for each Customer Segment broken down by years.
What we need to do now is define our assumptions around how much of each product is purchased by each new customer. The table works in percentages so 1 is 100% and 0.3 is 30%.
The table above is now filled out with the same assumptions we used in the Product Bookings example, each customer purchased a camera, and 50% purchase a monthly subscription while 30% purchase and annual subscription.
Now that we have created our Customer Segments and filled in the Product Mix Table we can build a Driver for New Customers.
In the screen shot above is the complete picture of the Driver which is made up of the following:
- Name - this can be any name that you prefer, in order to build a scalable model we recommend using a naming convention that can later be sorted; for example all drivers that relate to the same output, say travel expenses, start with Travel and then the thing it is - so when you sort they all club together. The key concept here is the name that you create here is what you will see in other areas of Jirav for vouching your driver.
- Output - this is the line in the model that you would like to have the result of the formula go to; in our example we are creating New Customers that will flow through the Product Mix Table.
- Start and End date - this is what tells Jirav what period(s) to perform the calculation in; in the example above it is assumed that Amazon starts selling in August 2019 and Direct starts selling in February 2019.
- Description - these are notes that you can make to recall or share with others the thinking around your driver.
The UA picker is how we choose what goes into these columns and can be seen below or for a detailed help article please see The Universal Addressability Picker help article.
Next we need to define what is driving our revenue and at what rate.
What we are assuming for the revenue forecast in the drivers above is that we will sell 50 cameras a month for the first month in each Customer Segment with Amazon growing at a rate of 10% each month and Direct growing at 5% each month.
This completes the customer booking drivers, now we can have a look at the outputs.
In order to review our work we will go to the Plan->Bookings module.
The first thing you will see is a column chart that shows the bookings quantity and a second column chart for the bookings dollars:
The next thing you will see is the New section that includes tables for the New Customers Quantity and Dollars as well as the New Bookings Quantity and Dollars.
From the table above you can see that the drivers are resulting in New Customers since this is our selected Output. Note that the [Driver] Direct begins at 50 in Feb-19 and goes up 5% each month as well as the [Driver] Amazon beginning in Aug-19 and going up by 10% each month as built with the periodic driver we did in Step 4 above.
The New Bookings table is the output of the new customers multiplied by the Customer Product Mix table. As such we can impute the MRR of Submonthly as 25 since that is 50% of the 50 new customers and 15 as 30% of the new customers that are in February; this formula is then computed each month into the model.
To see the final outputs that are mapped to your COA we go to Plans-> Revenue and can review the totals.
The first thing you will see is four column charts that reflect the Billings & Revenue by Product as well as the Billings & Revenue by account. Recall that the account is set in the Products Table.
The section below the charts has the same information though in a table format; this allows for you to see the exact dollars that are going to each product and account.